Saints vs Titans — Week 16, 2019
The Saints took over leading 31-28 with 4:06 left, 1st & 10 at the Titans 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Saints 38, Titans 28. Saints won 38-28 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Titans territory, 4:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.5% for Saints. Our model starts at 86.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:06) 28-L.Murray left tackle to TEN 20 for 5 yards (94-A.Johnson).
- (3:25) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to TEN 15 for 5 yards (54-R.Evans).
- (3:18) 41-A.Kamara right guard to TEN 14 for 1 yard (55-J.Brown).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to TEN 1 for 13 yards (26-L.Ryan).
- (2:59) 28-L.Murray left guard to TEN 2 for -1 yards (92-M.Dickerson, 54-R.Evans).
- (2:16) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.77 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.77 pts |
| Outside run | +0.06 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.19 pts |
| Inside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Quick out | -0.67 pts |
| QB keep | -0.70 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Field goal | -1.58 pts |
| Play action | -2.11 pts |
| Curl route | -2.25 pts |
| End-around | -4.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.36 pts |
| Deep post | -7.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.