Texans vs Colts — Week 12, 2019
The Texans took over leading 20-17 with 2:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Texans 20, Colts 17. Texans won 20-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Texans ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 41, 2:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.0% for Texans. Our model starts at 84.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right end to HOU 45 for 4 yards (29-M.Hooker).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde left guard to HOU 47 for 2 yards (96-D.Autry; 26-C.Geathers).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 15-W.Fuller to IND 42 for 11 yards (23-K.Moore II).
- (1:52) 23-C.Hyde right tackle to IND 41 for 1 yard (23-K.Moore II).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right end to IND 35 for 6 yards (53-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard), and recovers at IND 35.
- (:50) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde up the middle to IND 35 for no gain (93-J.Sheard).
- (:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Outside run | +0.16 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.14 pts |
| QB keep | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Inside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick out | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.50 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Curl route | -1.72 pts |
| Play action | -1.72 pts |
| End-around | -4.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.90 pts |
| Deep post | -7.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.53 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.