Raiders vs Broncos — Week 17, 2019
The Raiders took over trailing 16-9 with 2:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 1 timeout in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 15, Broncos 16. Broncos won 16-15 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Raiders ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 21, 2:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.6% for Raiders. Our model starts at 8.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 88-M.Ateman to LV 27 for 6 yards (26-I.Yiadom).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Ateman.
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 83-D.Waller (31-J.Simmons).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 83-D.Waller.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.78 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.78 pts |
| Deep post | +0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.48 pts |
| QB keep | +0.39 pts |
| Play action | +0.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.21 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.24 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| End-around | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.90 pts |
| Spike it | -0.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.