Lions vs Raiders — Week 9, 2019
The Lions took over trailing 31-24 with 1:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Lions 24, Raiders 31. Raiders won 31-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Lions ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 23, 1:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.3% for Lions. Our model starts at 7.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones pushed ob at DET 30 for 7 yards (27-T.Mullen).
- (1:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 41-J.McKissic to DET 37 for 7 yards (59-T.Whitehead, 29-L.Joyner).
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 19-K.Golladay.
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 88-T.Hockenson (25-E.Harris). DET-88-T.Hockenson was injured during the play.
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 19-K.Golladay to LV 34 for 24 yards (25-E.Harris).
- (:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to LV 4 for 4 yards (91-B.Mayowa; 50-N.Morrow).
- (:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LV 14 for -10 yards (92-P.Hall).
- (:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas to LV 1 for 13 yards (50-N.Morrow).
- (:08) 65-T.Crosby reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 82-L.Thomas (42-K.Joseph).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.89 pts |
| Curl route | +0.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.47 pts |
| QB keep | +0.38 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.03 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.22 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| End-around | -0.79 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Spike it | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.