Cardinals vs Ravens — Week 2, 2019
The Cardinals took over trailing 23-17 with 3:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 17, Ravens 23. Ravens won 23-17 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 9, 3:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.4% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 14.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 13-C.Kirk.
- (3:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Byrd.
- (3:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 11-L.Fitzgerald.
- (3:24) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee punts 59 yards to BAL 38, Center-46-A.Brewer. 27-C.Jones to BAL 45 for 7 yards (47-E.Turner).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.56 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.56 pts |
| Curl route | -0.68 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.91 pts |
| Quick out | -0.96 pts |
| QB keep | -0.98 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.98 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.06 pts |
| Play action | -1.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.13 pts |
| Spike it | -1.45 pts |
| Inside run | -1.58 pts |
| Outside run | -1.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.79 pts |
| End-around | -2.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.