Jaguars vs Texans — Week 2, 2019
The Jaguars took over trailing 13-6 with 3:36 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 1 timeout in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 12, Texans 13. Texans won 13-12 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 32, 3:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.5% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 12.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette right guard to JAX 36 for 4 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy pushed ob at JAX 41 for 5 yards (39-T.Gipson).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette right guard to JAX 41 for no gain (41-Z.Cunningham, 94-C.Omenihu).
- (2:19) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 42 for 1 yard (55-B.McKinney, 41-Z.Cunningham). Houston challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 27-L.Fournette.
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 87-G.Swaim to JAX 43 for 1 yard (37-J.Addae).
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 18-C.Conley pushed ob at HOU 45 for 12 yards (24-J.Joseph).
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 17-D.Chark pushed ob at HOU 31 for 14 yards (24-J.Joseph).
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Westbrook.
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Westbrook (24-J.Joseph).
- (:57) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 18-C.Conley.
- (:52) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew scrambles right end to HOU 13 for 18 yards (55-B.McKinney; 57-B.Scarlett).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.94 pts |
| Deep post | +0.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.61 pts |
| QB keep | +0.52 pts |
| Play action | +0.38 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.14 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| End-around | -1.04 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.07 pts |
| Spike it | -1.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.