Jaguars vs Panthers — Week 5, 2019
The Jaguars took over trailing 34-27 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 27, Panthers 34. Panthers won 34-27 — the drive turnover.
Jaguars ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.3% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 11.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew scrambles right end pushed ob at JAX 30 for 5 yards (55-B.Irvin).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 17-D.Chark pushed ob at JAX 40 for 10 yards (23-J.Elliott).
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew scrambles up the middle to CAR 49 for 11 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
- (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 27-L.Fournette pushed ob at CAR 42 for 7 yards (47-R.Cockrell).
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 27-L.Fournette pushed ob at CAR 39 for 3 yards (54-S.Thompson).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left.
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at CAR 47 for -8 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns) [53-B.Burns], RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at CAR 45. 98-M.Haynes to JAX 40 for 15 yards (23-R.Armstead). PENALTY on CAR-61-M.Paradis, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 40.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.90 pts |
| Deep post | +0.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.58 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| End-around | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
| Spike it | -1.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.