Bengals vs Raiders — Week 11, 2019
The Bengals took over trailing 17-10 with 1:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 10, Raiders 17. Raiders won 17-10 — the drive turnover.
Bengals ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 20, 1:54 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.5% for Bengals. Our model starts at 5.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley sacked at CIN 11 for -9 yards (98-M.Crosby).
- (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass deep right intended for 12-A.Erickson INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Mullen at CIN 36. 27-T.Mullen to CIN 36 for no gain (12-A.Erickson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.78 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.78 pts |
| Curl route | +0.68 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.40 pts |
| QB keep | +0.32 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.19 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| End-around | -0.68 pts |
| Spike it | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.