Dolphins vs Patriots — Week 17, 2019
The Dolphins took over trailing 24-20 with 3:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 27, Patriots 24. Dolphins won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.5% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 25.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short left to 42-P.Laird.
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 15-A.Wilson to MIA 35 for 10 yards (31-J.Jones).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep right to 88-M.Gesicki (23-P.Chung).
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at MIA 44 for 9 yards (23-P.Chung).
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 84-I.Ford to MIA 49 for 5 yards (27-J.Jackson) [54-D.Hightower].
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 45, and recovers at MIA 47. 14-R.Fitzpatrick to MIA 47 for no gain (70-A.Butler).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 11-D.Parker to NE 29 for 24 yards (24-S.Gilmore).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 11-D.Parker pushed ob at NE 24 for 5 yards (24-S.Gilmore).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep right to 84-I.Ford.
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 15-A.Wilson to NE 17 for 7 yards (31-J.Jones).
- (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 11-D.Parker pushed ob at NE 9 for 8 yards (24-S.Gilmore).
- (:35) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 84-I.Ford to NE 5 for 4 yards (27-J.Jackson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.29 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.29 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.99 pts |
| QB keep | +0.89 pts |
| Play action | +0.50 pts |
| Quick out | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.30 pts |
| Deep post | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.45 pts |
| End-around | -1.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.64 pts |
| Spike it | -2.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.