Titans vs Chiefs — Week 10, 2019
The Titans took over trailing 32-27 with 3:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Titans 35, Chiefs 32. Titans won 35-32 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.8% for Titans. Our model starts at 19.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 39 for 14 yards (22-J.Thornhill; 54-D.Wilson).
- (2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 41 for 2 yards (55-F.Clark, 95-C.Jones).
- (2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 81-J.Smith to TEN 44 for 3 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 32 for -7 yards (55-F.Clark).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown (21-B.Breeland) [56-B.Niemann].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.99 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.82 pts |
| Deep post | +0.77 pts |
| Play action | +0.58 pts |
| Quick out | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.11 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.90 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.91 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| End-around | -1.42 pts |
| Spike it | -1.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.