Saints vs 49ers — Week 14, 2019
The Saints took over trailing 45-40 with 2:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 1 timeout in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 46, 49ers 48. 49ers won 48-46 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 24, 2:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.8% for Saints. Our model starts at 15.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 10-T.Smith to NO 35 for 11 yards (54-F.Warner). Pass -1, YAC 12
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Thomas (36-M.Harris) [41-E.Moseley].
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas to NO 46 for 11 yards (25-R.Sherman).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at SF 29 for 25 yards (41-E.Moseley). Pass 10, YAC 15
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas to SF 24 for 5 yards (32-D.Reed Jr.). Pass 4, YAC 1
- (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short left to 13-M.Thomas.
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 10-T.Smith for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 13
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-D.Brees pass to 10-T.Smith is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Brees' pass was incomplete.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.40 pts |
| Deep post | +1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.01 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.92 pts |
| QB keep | +0.80 pts |
| Play action | +0.65 pts |
| Quick out | +0.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.35 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| End-around | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Spike it | -1.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.