Vikings vs Seahawks — Week 13, 2019
The Vikings took over trailing 34-30 with 3:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 30, Seahawks 37. Seahawks won 37-30 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Vikings ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 16, 3:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.6% for Vikings. Our model starts at 23.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph to MIN 35 for 19 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (3:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 14-S.Diggs.
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 25-A.Mattison to MIN 42 for 7 yards (94-E.Ansah, 50-K.Wright). SEA-94-E.Ansah was injured during the play.
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 11-L.Treadwell (50-K.Wright).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 84-I.Smith.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.48 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.25 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.08 pts |
| Deep post | -0.11 pts |
| QB keep | -0.14 pts |
| Play action | -0.23 pts |
| Quick out | -0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.79 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.15 pts |
| Outside run | -1.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.87 pts |
| Inside run | -1.94 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.12 pts |
| Spike it | -2.18 pts |
| End-around | -2.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.