Cowboys vs Vikings — Week 10, 2019
The Cowboys took over trailing 28-24 with 4:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 24, Vikings 28. Vikings won 28-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cowboys ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 6, 4:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.2% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 26.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to DAL 26 for 20 yards (41-A.Harris).
- (3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper to DAL 36 for 10 yards (29-X.Rhodes).
- (3:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Gallup.
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 13-M.Gallup to DAL 49 for 13 yards (21-M.Hughes). Penalty on MIN-21-M.Hughes, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper to MIN 31 for 20 yards (21-M.Hughes).
- (2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to MIN 27 for 4 yards (91-S.Weatherly).
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 82-J.Witten to MIN 19 for 8 yards (21-M.Hughes).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper to MIN 11 for 8 yards (21-M.Hughes).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to MIN 11 for no gain (54-E.Kendricks; 91-S.Weatherly).
- (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left end to MIN 14 for -3 yards (95-I.Odenigbo).
- (:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 21-E.Elliott (54-E.Kendricks).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.04 pts), and the weakest was Receiver pass (-3.48 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.29 pts |
| QB keep | -1.38 pts |
| Quick out | -1.38 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.63 pts |
| Curl route | -1.73 pts |
| Deep post | -1.94 pts |
| Outside run | -1.94 pts |
| Inside run | -1.98 pts |
| Play action | -2.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.27 pts |
| Spike it | -2.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.44 pts |
| End-around | -3.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.40 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.48 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.