Steelers vs 49ers — Week 3, 2019
The Steelers took over trailing 24-20 with 1:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 2 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 20, 49ers 24. 49ers won 24-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Steelers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 22, 1:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.3% for Steelers. Our model starts at 17.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right.
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph scrambles left tackle to PIT 29 for 7 yards (56-K.Alexander).
- (:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph sacked at PIT 20 for -9 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [99-D.Buckner], recovered by PIT-71-M.Feiler at PIT 20. 71-M.Feiler to PIT 20 for no gain (97-N.Bosa).
- (:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Washington (29-J.Tartt).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.84 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.84 pts |
| Deep post | +1.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.35 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.21 pts |
| QB keep | +1.05 pts |
| Play action | +0.92 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.62 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.61 pts |
| Quick out | +0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.20 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.91 pts |
| Inside run | -1.37 pts |
| End-around | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Spike it | -1.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.