Packers vs Lions — Week 17, 2019
The Packers took over tied at 20 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Packers 23, Lions 20. Packers won 23-20 — the drive turnover.
Packers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 26, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.8% for Packers. Our model starts at 55.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to GB 26 for no gain (99-J.Atkins).
- (2:48) 33-A.Jones left end pushed ob at GB 27 for 1 yard (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard to GB 40 for 13 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). GB-13-A.Lazard was injured during the play.
- (2:08) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-R.Tonyan pushed ob at GB 40 for no gain (25-W.Harris) [57-A.Pittman].
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling.
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 16-J.Kumerow INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET 26. 24-A.Oruwariye to DET 26 for no gain (16-J.Kumerow).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.14 pts |
| QB keep | +0.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.83 pts |
| Curl route | +0.63 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Outside run | +0.13 pts |
| Play action | -0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.18 pts |
| End-around | -2.55 pts |
| Deep post | -2.75 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.