Lions vs Commanders — Week 12, 2019
The Lions took over tied at 16 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Lions 16, Commanders 19. Commanders won 19-16 — the drive turnover.
Lions ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.9% for Lions. Our model starts at 58.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola to DET 36 for 11 yards (32-J.Moreland).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass short right to 19-K.Golladay to DET 37 for 1 yard (35-M.Nicholson).
- (1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass incomplete short right [53-J.Bostic].
- (:54) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Jones Jr. INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at WAS 46. 23-Q.Dunbar to WAS 46 for no gain (11-M.Jones Jr.).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.60 pts |
| QB keep | +1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.34 pts |
| Curl route | +1.21 pts |
| Quick out | +0.70 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.56 pts |
| Play action | +0.41 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.23 pts |
| Outside run | +0.20 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.45 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.80 pts |
| Deep post | -2.32 pts |
| End-around | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.93 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.