Bears vs Vikings — Week 17, 2019
The Bears took over trailing 19-18 with 4:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Bears 21, Vikings 19. Bears won 21-19 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.2% for Bears. Our model starts at 45.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:53) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 29-T.Cohen to CHI 31 for 6 yards (50-E.Wilson).
- (4:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 83-J.Wims to CHI 37 for 6 yards (40-K.Brothers).
- (4:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 43 for 6 yards (38-K.Boyd).
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to CHI 48 for 5 yards (27-J.Kearse, 50-E.Wilson).
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 12-A.Robinson.
- (3:17) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles up the middle to CHI 49 for 1 yard (50-E.Wilson).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short middle to 29-T.Cohen (51-H.Mata'afa).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-R.Ridley to MIN 19 for 32 yards (38-K.Boyd).
- (2:00) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right guard to MIN 14 for 5 yards (94-Jal.Johnson; 91-S.Weatherly). MIN-94-Jal.Johnson was injured during the play.
- (1:56) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to MIN 11 for 3 yards (50-E.Wilson; 94-Jal.Johnson).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 12-A.Robinson to MIN 8 for 3 yards (38-K.Boyd).
- (1:47) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to MIN 7 for 1 yard (24-H.Hill).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.85 pts |
| QB keep | +0.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.59 pts |
| Curl route | +0.53 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.05 pts |
| Play action | -0.11 pts |
| Outside run | -0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.68 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.84 pts |
| Deep post | -2.13 pts |
| End-around | -2.30 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.47 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.