Vikings vs Chiefs — Week 9, 2019
The Vikings took over tied at 23 with 2:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 23, Chiefs 26. Chiefs won 26-23 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.1% for Vikings. Our model starts at 56.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:30) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 14-S.Diggs (99-K.Saunders).
- (2:26) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 84-I.Smith to MIN 18 for -7 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 33-D.Cook [95-C.Jones].
- (1:55) 2-B.Colquitt punts 27 yards to MIN 45, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.45 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.45 pts |
| QB keep | +1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.19 pts |
| Curl route | +1.06 pts |
| Quick out | +0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.30 pts |
| Outside run | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.15 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.51 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.85 pts |
| Deep post | -2.34 pts |
| End-around | -2.45 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.90 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.