Titans vs Colts — Week 2, 2019
The Titans took over trailing 19-17 with 4:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Titans 17, Colts 19. Colts won 19-17 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.6% for Titans. Our model starts at 40.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:38) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Davis (58-B.Okereke).
- (4:33) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 11-A.Brown.
- (4:28) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 19-T.Sharpe to TEN 34 for 9 yards (37-K.Willis).
- (3:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to IND 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 26 for no gain (29-D.Cruikshank; 30-C.Milton).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.94 pts |
| QB keep | +0.81 pts |
| Curl route | +0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.75 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Play action | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.21 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.42 pts |
| Deep post | -1.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| End-around | -2.17 pts |
| Spike it | -2.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.