Jets vs Bills — Week 1, 2019
The Jets took over trailing 17-16 with 3:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Jets 16, Bills 17. Bills won 17-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jets ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 3:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 49.8% for Jets. Our model starts at 47.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 82-J.Crowder to NYJ 30 for 5 yards (33-S.Neal).
- (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 82-J.Crowder to NYJ 34 for 4 yards (27-T.White; 33-S.Neal).
- (2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 11-Ro.Anderson (39-L.Wallace).
- (2:00) 26-L.Bell left guard to NYJ 35 for 1 yard (97-J.Phillips, 21-J.Poyer).
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 82-J.Crowder (93-T.Murphy).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 84-R.Griffin (57-L.Alexander).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 81-Q.Enunwa.
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 82-J.Crowder (55-J.Hughes). Penalty on NYJ-68-K.Beachum, Offensive Holding, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.43 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.43 pts |
| Curl route | +1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.26 pts |
| QB keep | +1.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.60 pts |
| Play action | +0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.14 pts |
| Outside run | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.26 pts |
| Deep post | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| End-around | -2.19 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.