Dolphins vs Jets — Week 14, 2019
The Dolphins took over trailing 19-18 with 4:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 21, Jets 22. Jets won 22-21 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.6% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 46.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:05) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 84-I.Ford to MIA 41 for 16 yards (31-B.Austin) [94-F.Fatukasi].
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 17-A.Hurns to MIA 47 for 6 yards (96-H.Anderson).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 84-I.Ford to NYJ 41 for 12 yards (31-B.Austin).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 17-A.Hurns to NYJ 36 for 15 yards (20-M.Maye).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 42-P.Laird pushed ob at NYJ 15 for 21 yards (27-D.Roberts).
- (1:55) 42-P.Laird up the middle to NYJ 17 for -2 yards (58-J.Burgess).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick sacked at NYJ 20 for -3 yards (48-J.Jenkins).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 42-P.Laird up the middle to NYJ 19 for 1 yard (93-T.Basham).
- (1:37) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.17 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.09 pts |
| QB keep | +0.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.86 pts |
| Curl route | +0.84 pts |
| Quick out | +0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Play action | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.66 pts |
| Deep post | -1.89 pts |
| End-around | -2.30 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.17 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.