Rams vs Seahawks — Week 5, 2019
The Rams took over trailing 30-29 with 2:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Rams 29, Seahawks 30. Seahawks won 30-29 — the drive turnover.
Rams ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 2:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.9% for Rams. Our model starts at 47.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-C.Kupp ran ob at LA 36 for 11 yards (21-T.Flowers).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 18-C.Kupp.
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 17-R.Woods (30-B.McDougald).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 81-G.Everett. Seattle challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 81-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 33-T.Thompson at SEA 49. 33-T.Thompson to SEA 49 for no gain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.60 pts |
| Curl route | +1.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.46 pts |
| QB keep | +1.41 pts |
| Quick out | +0.73 pts |
| Play action | +0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.06 pts |
| Deep post | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| End-around | -2.14 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.89 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.