Falcons vs Buccaneers — Week 17, 2019
The Falcons took over trailing 22-19 with 3:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 22, Buccaneers 22. Tied 22-22 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 3:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.1% for Falcons. Our model starts at 29.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:01) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 24-D.Freeman to ATL 31 for 11 yards (54-L.David).
- (2:32) (No Huddle) 24-D.Freeman up the middle to ATL 34 for 3 yards (54-L.David).
- (2:01) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-A.Hooper pushed ob at ATL 38 for 4 yards (35-J.Dean) [93-N.Suh].
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 37 for -1 yards (58-S.Barrett).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 83-R.Gage to ATL 43 for 6 yards (36-M.Stewart).
- (:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 41 for -7 yards (58-S.Barrett).
- (:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 81-A.Hooper [92-W.Gholston].
- (:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-J.Hardy pushed ob at TB 38 for 21 yards (24-D.Stewart).
- (:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 17-O.Zaccheaus to TB 27 for 11 yards (35-J.Dean).
- (:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 83-R.Gage ran ob at TB 15 for 12 yards.
- (:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to TB 15 for no gain (36-M.Stewart).
- (:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 83-R.Gage (93-N.Suh).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.28 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.28 pts |
| QB keep | +1.14 pts |
| Play action | +0.72 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.45 pts |
| Deep post | +0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.55 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| End-around | -1.75 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.78 pts |
| Spike it | -2.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.