Browns vs Seahawks — Week 6, 2019
The Browns took over trailing 32-28 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Browns 28, Seahawks 32. Seahawks won 32-28 — the drive turnover.
Browns ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.3% for Browns. Our model starts at 24.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 83-R.Seals-Jones to CLE 20 for 5 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 25-D.Hilliard INTERCEPTED by 50-K.Wright at CLE 26. 50-K.Wright to CLE 26 for no gain (25-D.Hilliard).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.41 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.08 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.07 pts |
| QB keep | +0.95 pts |
| Play action | +0.59 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Deep post | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.23 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| End-around | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.