Chiefs vs Lions — Week 4, 2019
The Chiefs took over trailing 30-27 with 2:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 34, Lions 30. Chiefs won 34-30 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 21, 2:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.0% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 27.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 31-D.Williams pushed ob at KC 32 for 11 yards (38-M.Ford).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 31-D.Williams.
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 31-D.Williams to KC 34 for 2 yards (32-T.Wilson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 11-D.Robinson.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to KC 49 for 15 yards (25-W.Harris).
- (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at DET 33 for 18 yards (21-T.Walker).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to DET 32 for 1 yard (42-D.Kennard). PENALTY on DET-29-R.Melvin, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DET 32.
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 11-D.Robinson pushed ob at DET 18 for 9 yards (21-T.Walker).
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 17-M.Hardman to DET 16 for 2 yards (21-T.Walker).
- (:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Watkins (27-J.Coleman).
- (:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 13-B.Pringle to DET 3 for 13 yards (25-W.Harris).
- (:30) (Shotgun) 31-D.Williams up the middle to DET 1 for 2 yards (40-J.Davis, 90-T.Flowers).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.89 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.41 pts |
| QB keep | +1.26 pts |
| Play action | +0.91 pts |
| Deep post | +0.86 pts |
| Quick out | +0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.57 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.20 pts |
| Inside run | -1.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| End-around | -1.63 pts |
| Spike it | -2.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.