Cowboys vs Saints — Week 4, 2019
The Cowboys took over trailing 12-10 with 1:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 10, Saints 12. Saints won 12-10 — the drive turnover.
Cowboys ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 14, 1:39 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.8% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 31.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 3 for -11 yards (93-D.Onyemata). DAL-77-T.Smith was injured during the play. Owing to the injury and Dallas being out of timeouts, there was a 10-second runoff.
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 21-E.Elliott to DAL 12 for 9 yards (53-A.Klein; 24-V.Bell). Pass 2, YAC 7
- (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper to DAL 26 for 14 yards (23-M.Lattimore) [92-M.Davenport]. Pass 0, YAC 14 The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 21-E.Elliott.
- (:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to 19-A.Cooper (24-V.Bell).
- (:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to DAL 48 for 32 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 24, YAC 8
- (:03) 4-D.Prescott spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams [22-C.Gardner-Johnson] at NO 13. 43-M.Williams to NO 14 for 1 yard (18-R.Cobb).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.39 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.17 pts |
| Deep post | -0.19 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.26 pts |
| Play action | -0.49 pts |
| QB keep | -0.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.93 pts |
| Quick out | -1.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.10 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.74 pts |
| Outside run | -2.02 pts |
| Inside run | -2.42 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.76 pts |
| End-around | -3.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.