Raiders vs Chargers — Week 10, 2019
The Raiders took over trailing 24-20 with 3:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 26, Chargers 24. Raiders won 26-24 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.2% for Raiders. Our model starts at 26.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:57) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 28-J.Jacobs.
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 30-J.Richard to LV 36 for 11 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr scrambles right tackle to LV 40 for 4 yards (58-T.Davis).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to 50 for 10 yards (58-T.Davis, 49-D.Tranquill) [97-J.Bosa].
- (2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 30-J.Richard ran ob at LAC 40 for 10 yards (27-J.Watkins).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 30-J.Richard left end to LAC 40 for no gain (97-J.Bosa; 49-D.Tranquill).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow to LAC 27 for 13 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 16-T.Williams.
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 30-J.Richard to LAC 18 for 9 yards (20-D.King; 49-D.Tranquill).
- (1:06) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.27 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.98 pts |
| QB keep | +0.89 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Quick out | +0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Deep post | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.55 pts |
| End-around | -1.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.77 pts |
| Spike it | -2.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.