Bears vs Raiders — Week 5, 2019
The Bears took over trailing 24-21 with 1:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Bears 21, Raiders 24. Raiders won 24-21 — the drive turnover.
Bears ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.6% for Bears. Our model starts at 28.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass deep left to 12-A.Robinson ran ob at CHI 42 for 17 yards.
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson to CHI 47 for 5 yards (25-E.Harris).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short left to 29-T.Cohen ran ob at LV 47 for 6 yards (20-D.Worley).
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Wims. LV-99-A.Key was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass deep right intended for 17-A.Miller INTERCEPTED by 21-G.Conley at LV 23. 21-G.Conley to LV 26 for 3 yards (17-A.Miller).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.06 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.61 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.54 pts |
| QB keep | +1.37 pts |
| Play action | +1.03 pts |
| Deep post | +1.02 pts |
| Quick out | +0.76 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.28 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.27 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| End-around | -1.65 pts |
| Spike it | -2.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.