Rams vs Cardinals — Week 17, 2019
The Rams took over leading 31-24 with 3:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Rams 31, Cardinals 24. Rams won 31-24 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.8% for Rams. Our model starts at 91.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:53) 34-M.Brown right tackle to LA 25 for no gain (32-B.Baker).
- (3:04) 34-M.Brown up the middle to LA 35 for 5 yards (59-J.Walker, 94-C.Reid).
- (2:59) 34-M.Brown right guard to 50 for 15 yards (32-B.Baker; 34-J.Thompson).
- (2:13) 34-M.Brown left tackle to LA 47 for -3 yards (32-B.Baker, 98-C.Peters).
- (2:00) 17-R.Woods right end to ARI 44 for 9 yards (59-J.Walker).
- (1:54) 34-M.Brown up the middle to ARI 45 for -1 yards (94-C.Reid; 92-Z.Kerr).
- (1:09) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.55 pts |
| Quick out | -0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.04 pts |
| QB keep | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Play action | -2.62 pts |
| Curl route | -2.89 pts |
| End-around | -4.91 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.98 pts |
| Deep post | -8.54 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.75 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.