Rams vs Browns — Week 3, 2019
The Rams took over leading 20-13 with 4:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 47, 1 timeout in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Rams 20, Browns 13. Rams won 20-13 — the drive turnover.
Rams ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 4:23 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.3% for Rams. Our model starts at 92.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:23) 30-T.Gurley right tackle to LA 45 for -2 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
- (3:39) 30-T.Gurley left guard to CLE 46 for 9 yards (54-O.Vernon).
- (2:54) 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Burris (53-J.Schobert) at CLE 28. 31-J.Burris to CLE 43 for 15 yards (18-C.Kupp).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.33 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.63 pts |
| Quick out | -1.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| QB keep | -1.25 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.37 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -2.72 pts |
| Curl route | -3.03 pts |
| End-around | -4.99 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.09 pts |
| Deep post | -8.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.78 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.