Chiefs vs Ravens — Week 3, 2019
The Chiefs took over leading 33-28 with 2:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 33, Ravens 28. Chiefs won 33-28 — the drive time expired.
Chiefs ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 36, 2:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.1% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 92.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:01) 31-D.Williams up the middle to KC 36 for no gain (97-M.Pierce).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 31-D.Williams up the middle to KC 37 for 1 yard (23-T.Jefferson).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 31-D.Williams to BAL 47 for 16 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
- (1:05) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to BAL 48 for -1 yards.
- (:31) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to BAL 49 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick out | -0.84 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.88 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.93 pts |
| QB keep | -1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Play action | -2.47 pts |
| Curl route | -2.71 pts |
| End-around | -4.86 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.85 pts |
| Deep post | -8.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.