Lions vs Chargers — Week 2, 2019
The Lions took over leading 13-10 with 1:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Lions 13, Chargers 10. Lions won 13-10 — the drive time expired.
Lions ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 20, 1:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.3% for Lions. Our model starts at 82.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:03) 26-C.Anderson up the middle to DET 21 for 1 yard (54-M.Ingram).
- (:58) 26-C.Anderson right tackle to DET 24 for 3 yards (42-U.Nwosu).
- (:53) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 83-J.James to DET 31 for 7 yards (58-T.Davis).
- (:11) 9-M.Stafford kneels to DET 30 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.37 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.37 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.48 pts |
| Outside run | +0.16 pts |
| QB keep | +0.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.12 pts |
| Quick out | -0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.44 pts |
| Curl route | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.29 pts |
| Play action | -1.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.79 pts |
| End-around | -3.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.49 pts |
| Deep post | -6.48 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.14 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.