Texans vs Titans — Week 15, 2019
The Texans took over leading 24-21 with 2:03 left, 1st & 10 at the Titans 42, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Texans 24, Titans 21. Texans won 24-21 — the drive turned it over.
Texans ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Titans territory, 2:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.5% for Texans. Our model starts at 89.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:03) 23-C.Hyde up the middle to TEN 42 for no gain (94-A.Johnson).
- (1:59) 23-C.Hyde up the middle to TEN 42 for no gain (90-D.Jones).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde up the middle to TEN 39 for 3 yards (90-D.Jones).
- (:28) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to TEN 1, Center-46-J.Weeks. 36-L.Sims to TEN 12 for 11 yards (52-B.Mingo, 33-A.Moore).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.38 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.03 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick out | -0.64 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.69 pts |
| QB keep | -0.71 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Play action | -2.14 pts |
| Curl route | -2.28 pts |
| End-around | -4.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.46 pts |
| Deep post | -7.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.21 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.