Cardinals vs Bengals — Week 5, 2019
The Cardinals took over leading 23-16 with 4:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 26, Bengals 23. Cardinals won 26-23 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.2% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 91.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 25 for 5 yards (97-G.Atkins).
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 19-K.Johnson (27-D.Kirkpatrick).
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald (23-B.Webb) [97-G.Atkins].
- (3:52) 9-R.Winslow punts 55 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-T.Boyd to CIN 19 for -1 yards (16-T.Sherfield).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.57 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.06 pts |
| QB keep | -1.18 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -2.64 pts |
| Curl route | -2.91 pts |
| End-around | -4.93 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.13 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.99 pts |
| Deep post | -8.55 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.76 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.