Steelers vs Jets — Week 16, 2019
The Steelers took over trailing 16-10 with 3:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 10, Jets 16. Jets won 16-10 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.3% for Steelers. Our model starts at 14.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 38-J.Samuels left guard to PIT 26 for 1 yard (95-Q.Williams; 58-J.Burgess).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges sacked at PIT 21 for -5 yards (98-K.Phillips).
- (2:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass incomplete short left to 89-V.McDonald (51-B.Copeland).
- (1:59) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to NYJ 34, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.14 pts |
| Deep post | +0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.81 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.75 pts |
| QB keep | +0.64 pts |
| Play action | +0.47 pts |
| Quick out | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.62 pts |
| Outside run | -0.77 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| End-around | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.25 pts |
| Spike it | -1.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.