Texans vs Colts — Week 7, 2019
The Texans took over trailing 28-23 with 4:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 4, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Texans 23, Colts 30. Colts won 30-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Texans ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 4, 4:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.1% for Texans. Our model starts at 19.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Hopkins (35-P.Desir).
- (4:04) (Shotgun) 25-D.Johnson right guard to HOU 7 for 3 yards (37-K.Willis, 53-D.Leonard).
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 5 for -2 yards (99-J.Houston).
- (2:44) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger up the middle ran ob in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (14-Z.Pascal).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.92 pts), and the weakest was Receiver pass (-3.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.92 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.13 pts |
| Quick out | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.21 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.55 pts |
| Deep post | -1.57 pts |
| Curl route | -1.76 pts |
| Play action | -1.83 pts |
| Inside run | -1.86 pts |
| Outside run | -1.86 pts |
| Spike it | -1.91 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.17 pts |
| End-around | -2.71 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.80 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.