Chargers vs Texans — Week 3, 2019
The Chargers took over trailing 27-20 with 4:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 20, Texans 27. Texans won 27-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chargers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 16, 4:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.7% for Chargers. Our model starts at 11.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 13-K.Allen to LAC 19 for 3 yards (24-J.Joseph) [99-J.Watt].
- (3:39) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to LAC 46 for 27 yards (21-B.Roby).
- (2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 43 for -3 yards (99-J.Watt).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 81-M.Williams.
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to 87-L.Kendricks.
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to HOU 42 for 15 yards (32-L.Johnson) [99-J.Watt].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to 12-T.Benjamin (39-T.Gipson) [99-J.Watt].
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 80-S.Culkin.
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers scrambles up the middle to HOU 34 for 8 yards (21-B.Roby).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to HOU 30 for 4 yards (20-J.Reid). HOU-20-J.Reid was injured during the play.
- (:46) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers scrambles right end to HOU 29 for 1 yard (41-Z.Cunningham).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to HOU 24 for 5 yards (24-J.Joseph).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.24 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.24 pts |
| Deep post | +0.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.03 pts |
| QB keep | -0.15 pts |
| Play action | -0.19 pts |
| Quick out | -0.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.37 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.71 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.95 pts |
| Outside run | -1.04 pts |
| Spike it | -1.23 pts |
| Inside run | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| End-around | -1.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.