Bills vs Patriots — Week 4, 2019
The Bills took over trailing 16-10 with 3:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Bills 10, Patriots 16. Patriots won 16-10 — the drive turnover.
Bills ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 14, 3:09 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.4% for Bills. Our model starts at 11.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right to 10-C.Beasley to BUF 34 for 20 yards (31-J.Jones). Slant pattern, caught at BUF 22.
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short left to 10-C.Beasley to BUF 41 for 7 yards (58-J.Collins). Dump pass, caught at BUF 38.
- (2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass deep right to 88-D.Knox to NE 40 for 19 yards (23-P.Chung).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right to 15-J.Brown to NE 39 for 1 yard (55-J.Simon). Screen pass, caught at NE 41.
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass incomplete short middle to 11-Z.Jones (70-A.Butler). Pass batted at line, receiver at NE 39.
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 15-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Collins at NE 38. 58-J.Collins to NE 49 for 11 yards (67-Q.Spain).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.17 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.17 pts |
| Curl route | +0.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.26 pts |
| Play action | -0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.40 pts |
| QB keep | -0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.89 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.03 pts |
| Spike it | -1.23 pts |
| Outside run | -1.32 pts |
| Inside run | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| End-around | -1.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.