Lions vs Bears — Week 10, 2019
The Lions took over trailing 20-13 with 3:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 48, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Lions 13, Bears 20. Bears won 20-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Lions ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Near midfield, 3:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.5% for Lions. Our model starts at 17.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 41-J.McKissic left guard to 50 for 2 yards (58-R.Smith; 52-K.Mack).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Amendola.
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass short right to 80-D.Amendola to CHI 36 for 9 yards (39-E.Jackson).
- (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass incomplete short middle to 19-K.Golladay.
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep middle to 19-K.Golladay.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.25 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.25 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.91 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.86 pts |
| Deep post | +0.81 pts |
| QB keep | +0.75 pts |
| Play action | +0.54 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.15 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.74 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| End-around | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Spike it | -1.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.