Colts vs Titans — Week 13, 2019
The Colts took over trailing 24-17 with 4:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 17, Titans 31. Titans won 31-17 — the drive turnover.
Colts ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 26, 4:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.4% for Colts. Our model starts at 13.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 84-J.Doyle.
- (4:52) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle intended for 14-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan at TEN 40. 26-L.Ryan to IND 44 for 16 yards (21-N.Hines).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.74 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.52 pts |
| QB keep | +0.45 pts |
| Deep post | +0.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.24 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.80 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.84 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.04 pts |
| End-around | -1.07 pts |
| Spike it | -1.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.