Raiders vs Chargers — Week 16, 2019
The Raiders took over leading 24-17 with 1:28 left, 1st & 10 at the Chargers 49, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 24, Chargers 17. Raiders won 24-17 — the drive time expired.
Raiders ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 1:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.0% for Raiders. Our model starts at 97.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:28) 33-D.Washington up the middle to LAC 49 for no gain (31-A.Phillips; 58-T.Davis).
- (1:25) 33-D.Washington up the middle to LAC 49 for no gain (43-M.Davis; 44-K.White).
- (:41) 33-D.Washington left guard to LAC 36 for 13 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.55 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.55 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.93 pts |
| Quick out | -1.27 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.28 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.29 pts |
| QB keep | -1.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Play action | -3.16 pts |
| Curl route | -3.59 pts |
| End-around | -5.60 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.64 pts |
| Deep post | -9.52 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.58 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.