Bills vs Steelers — Week 15, 2019
The Bills took over leading 17-10 with 1:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Bills 17, Steelers 10. Bills won 17-10 — the drive turned it over.
Bills ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 1:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.9% for Bills. Our model starts at 95.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:54) 20-F.Gore up the middle to BUF 24 for 4 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
- (1:49) 20-F.Gore right guard to BUF 26 for 2 yards (97-C.Heyward, 94-T.Alualu).
- (1:43) 20-F.Gore up the middle to BUF 26 for no gain (34-Te.Edmunds). Penalty on BUF-67-Q.Spain, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (1:40) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to PIT 43, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-K.Coleman.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.12 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -1.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| QB keep | -1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Play action | -2.80 pts |
| Curl route | -3.14 pts |
| End-around | -5.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.32 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.23 pts |
| Deep post | -8.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.