Dolphins vs Eagles — Week 13, 2019
The Dolphins took over leading 37-31 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 1 timeout in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 37, Eagles 31. Dolphins won 37-31 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 37, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.1% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 94.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) 42-P.Laird left tackle to MIA 37 for no gain (50-D.Riley).
- (1:46) 42-P.Laird right tackle to MIA 38 for 1 yard (23-R.McLeod; 55-B.Graham).
- (1:01) 61-J.Webb reported in as eligible. 42-P.Laird up the middle to MIA 41 for 3 yards (50-D.Riley).
- (:15) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to PHI 31, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.62 pts |
| Quick out | -1.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.08 pts |
| QB keep | -1.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.37 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Play action | -2.77 pts |
| Curl route | -3.10 pts |
| End-around | -5.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.20 pts |
| Deep post | -8.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.