Steelers vs Chargers — Week 6, 2019
The Steelers took over leading 24-17 with 1:28 left, 1st & 10 at the Chargers 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 24, Chargers 17. Steelers won 24-17 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 1:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.0% for Steelers. Our model starts at 98.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:28) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 24-B.Snell left end to LAC 43 for 2 yards (93-J.Jones; 43-M.Davis).
- (1:22) 24-B.Snell left guard to LAC 43 for no gain (43-M.Davis; 93-J.Jones).
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges right end to LAC 36 for 7 yards (44-K.White).
- (1:11) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to LAC 1, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-80-J.Holton.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.50 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.96 pts |
| Quick out | -1.30 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.31 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.31 pts |
| QB keep | -1.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.78 pts |
| Play action | -3.20 pts |
| Curl route | -3.64 pts |
| End-around | -5.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.68 pts |
| Deep post | -9.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.63 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.