Raiders vs Broncos — Week 1, 2019
The Raiders took over leading 24-16 with 2:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 24, Broncos 16. Raiders won 24-16 — the drive time expired.
Raiders ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 2:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.1% for Raiders. Our model starts at 96.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:15) 33-D.Washington up the middle to LV 26 for 1 yard (22-K.Jackson).
- (2:11) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to LV 27 for 1 yard (47-J.Jewell; 96-S.Harris).
- (2:00) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 16-T.Williams to LV 37 for 10 yards (22-K.Jackson).
- (1:15) 28-J.Jacobs right guard to 50 for 13 yards (25-C.Harris; 31-J.Simmons).
- (:34) 4-D.Carr kneels to LV 49 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.81 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.82 pts |
| Quick out | -1.18 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.22 pts |
| QB keep | -1.53 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -3.02 pts |
| Curl route | -3.42 pts |
| End-around | -5.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.48 pts |
| Deep post | -9.30 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.