Packers vs Bears — Week 1, 2019
The Packers took over leading 10-3 with 1:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Packers 10, Bears 3. Packers won 10-3 — the drive turned it over.
Packers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 1:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.2% for Packers. Our model starts at 94.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:58) 33-A.Jones left guard to GB 25 for 5 yards (52-K.Mack).
- (1:53) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling.
- (1:50) 33-A.Jones left tackle to GB 27 for 2 yards (96-A.Hicks).
- (1:45) (Punt formation) 6-J.Scott punts 63 yards to CHI 10, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 24 for 14 yards (31-A.Amos). PENALTY on CHI-33-D.Shelley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 24.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.14 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.57 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.64 pts |
| Quick out | -1.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| QB keep | -1.31 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Play action | -2.78 pts |
| Curl route | -3.13 pts |
| End-around | -5.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.22 pts |
| Deep post | -8.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.