Commanders vs Dolphins — Week 6, 2019
The Commanders took over leading 17-10 with 4:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 1, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 17, Dolphins 16. Commanders won 17-16 — the drive turned it over.
Commanders ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 1, 4:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.2% for Commanders. Our model starts at 89.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:41) 74-G.Christian reported in as eligible. 26-A.Peterson right guard to WAS 1 for no gain (20-R.Jones).
- (3:59) 8-C.Keenum pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at WAS 33 for 32 yards.
- (3:51) 74-G.Christian reported in as eligible. 26-A.Peterson right tackle to WAS 39 for 6 yards (52-R.McMillan; 55-J.Baker).
- (3:09) 26-A.Peterson left tackle to WAS 44 for 5 yards (21-E.Rowe; 47-V.Biegel).
- (3:02) 26-A.Peterson left tackle to WAS 47 for 3 yards (95-J.Jenkins).
- (2:59) 74-G.Christian reported in as eligible. 8-C.Keenum right end to WAS 49 for 2 yards (52-R.McMillan).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep left to 10-P.Richardson.
- (2:11) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to MIA 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 18-P.Williams pushed ob at MIA 25 for 9 yards (39-J.Reaves).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.83 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.26 pts |
| Quick out | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.56 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.77 pts |
| QB keep | -1.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.08 pts |
| Play action | -3.35 pts |
| Curl route | -3.80 pts |
| End-around | -5.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.78 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.64 pts |
| Deep post | -8.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.