Bears vs Giants — Week 12, 2019
The Bears took over leading 19-14 with 4:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Bears 19, Giants 14. Bears won 19-14 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.1% for Bears. Our model starts at 84.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:10) 32-D.Montgomery left end to CHI 27 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 29-T.Cohen to CHI 34 for 7 yards (47-A.Ogletree).
- (3:54) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to CHI 33 for -1 yards (44-M.Golden).
- (3:48) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to NYG 6, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.67 pts |
| Outside run | +0.01 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.16 pts |
| Inside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| QB keep | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -2.05 pts |
| Curl route | -2.14 pts |
| End-around | -4.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.24 pts |
| Deep post | -7.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.