Broncos vs Browns — Week 9, 2019
The Broncos took over leading 24-19 with 3:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 24, Browns 19. Broncos won 24-19 — the drive time expired.
Broncos ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 28, 3:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 86.8% for Broncos. Our model starts at 88.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle to DEN 29 for 1 yard (51-M.Wilson).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 30-P.Lindsay. 30-P.Lindsay left end to DEN 45 for 16 yards (54-O.Vernon). CLE-54-O.Vernon was injured during the play.
- (2:00) 2-B.Allen kneels to DEN 44 for -1 yards.
- (1:19) 2-B.Allen kneels to DEN 43 for -1 yards.
- (:37) 2-B.Allen kneels to DEN 42 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.56 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.03 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Quick out | -0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.77 pts |
| QB keep | -0.77 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -2.20 pts |
| Curl route | -2.35 pts |
| End-around | -4.52 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.49 pts |
| Deep post | -7.84 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.19 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.