49ers vs Rams — Week 16, 2019
The 49ers took over tied at 31 with 2:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 34, Rams 31. 49ers won 34-31 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 59.3% for 49ers. Our model starts at 57.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 19 for -6 yards (sack split by 99-A.Donald and 56-D.Fowler).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 31-R.Mostert (52-C.Matthews).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to SF 37 for 18 yards (32-E.Weddle). Caught at SF 33. 4-yac
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left guard to SF 38 for 1 yard (58-C.Littleton).
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 31 for -7 yards (50-S.Ebukam).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 17-E.Sanders to LA 23 for 46 yards (20-J.Ramsey). Caught at LA 28. 5-yac
- (:35) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman right end to LA 14 for 9 yards (24-T.Rapp).
- (:17) 10-J.Garoppolo kneels to LA 15 for -1 yards.
- (:03) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.41 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.41 pts |
| QB keep | +1.18 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.13 pts |
| Curl route | +0.97 pts |
| Quick out | +0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | +0.22 pts |
| Outside run | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.98 pts |
| Deep post | -2.53 pts |
| End-around | -2.54 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.